Bitcoin's failure to rally alongside U.S. stocks has puzzled many, but Charles Schwab's Jim Ferraioli blames a simple culprit: the asset is losing the momentum trade. While crypto has seen positive developments like spot ETF approvals and institutional inflows, capital is rotating into AI, IPOs, and other high-growth themes. Ferraioli notes that crypto investors are momentum-driven and are currently chasing AI stocks, anticipated IPOs from OpenAI and SpaceX, and synthetic pre-IPO contracts on exchanges like Hyperliquid. He downplays concerns over Michael Saylor's Strategy selling 32 bitcoin, calling it a minor factor. Instead, he points to retail dominance, seasonal weakness in summer, and large ETF exits as key drivers. Despite regulatory progress like the Clarity Act, Ferraioli sees no immediate catalyst to reverse the trend, as investor attention remains elsewhere. Bitcoin has lost over 16% in the past month while the S&P 500 hit all-time highs, underscoring the decoupling.

Key facts

• Bitcoin down over 16% in past month while S&P 500 hits all-time highs
• Schwab strategist says capital rotating into AI stocks and IPOs like OpenAI and SpaceX
• Traders using Hyperliquid for synthetic pre-IPO contracts instead of bitcoin
• ETFs seeing large exits, including $1.26B block sale of BlackRock's IBIT
• Retail investors remain dominant; no near-term catalyst seen

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