Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder Supply Approaches Record High, Breaks Multi-Year Downtrend
Bitcoin's long-term holder (LTH) supply has surged to 16.3 million BTC, approaching the all-time high of 16.4 million BTC set in January 2024. Since October 2025, when bitcoin reached a record above $126,000, LTH supply has increased by over 2 million coins. In the past month alone, it rose by roughly 200,000 BTC. This marks a reversal of the distribution trend seen after the U.S. spot bitcoin ETF launch in early 2024, when nearly 2 million BTC were sold by long-term holders during the subsequent rally. Historically, long-term holders accumulate during bear markets and distribute during bull runs, as observed in 2015 and 2019. The current accumulation suggests that these investors, often considered 'smart money,' are once again increasing exposure at depressed price levels, breaking a 2.5-year downtrend in LTH supply. This shift indicates renewed confidence in bitcoin's long-term value despite market weakness.
Key facts
- Long-term holder supply reaches 16.3 million BTC, near record 16.4 million.
- Supply increased by 2 million BTC since bitcoin's peak above $126,000 in October 2025.
- Previous high in January 2024 preceded ETF launch; holders then sold 2 million BTC.
- Accumulation breaks 2.5-year downtrend, signaling renewed smart money confidence.
- Historical pattern: long-term holders accumulate in bear markets, distribute in bull runs.