Bitcoin's 50% Drawdown from ATH Is Shallowest in History, Analysts Say Bear Market Not Over
Bitcoin has dropped 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, making it the shallowest bear market in history, compared to 2012's 90% correction. Analysts attribute this to Bitcoin's institutionalization, with ETF support, deeper liquidity, and long-term holders. However, experts like Jeff Ko (CoinEx) and Alex Tsepaev (B2PRIME) warn the bear market is not over, citing persistent ETF outflows (only one inflow day since May 18), macro tightening, and geopolitical tensions. Key support levels are $60,000, with a potential drop to $55,000 or $45,000. Wintermute notes that Bitcoin never spent significant time in the $50,000-$59,000 range on the way up in 2024, leaving flows to determine direction. Prediction market Myriad gives a 72% chance of Bitcoin falling to $55,000, up from 39% on June 1. Catalysts for a bottom include de-escalation of geopolitical tensions and increased ETF demand. On altcoins, Hyperliquid's HYPE shows signs of independent valuation, suggesting not all tokens will recover with Bitcoin.
Key facts
- Bitcoin is down 50% from its $126,080 ATH, the shallowest bear market ever.
- ETF outflows: only one inflow day since May 18, signaling weak passive demand.
- Key support levels: $60,000, with potential drop to $55,000 or $45,000.
- Analysts see bear market continuing due to macro tightening and geopolitical risks.
- Myriad market gives 72% chance Bitcoin falls to $55,000.