Bitcoin Metrics Suggest February's $60K Selloff May Have Marked Cycle Bottom
Several on-chain and derivatives metrics suggest that Bitcoin's correction bottom may have been set in early February, when the price briefly fell to $60,000. Realized Cap, which measures aggregate cost basis, peaked near $1.12 trillion before dropping to $1.08 trillion as Bitcoin declined over 50% from its October high. This wealth destruction mirrored the 2022 bear market, and Realized Cap has since stabilized and formed a base. The RHODL Ratio, comparing wealth held by long-term holders (6 months to 2 years) vs. new participants (1 day to 3 months), is now above 5—its third-highest reading ever, with only the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms higher. Long-term holder supply has increased by over 400,000 BTC since February. Additionally, perpetual futures funding rates remained negative for one of the longest periods on record between February and May, historically a sign of extreme bearish sentiment and overcrowded short positioning. Similar negative funding episodes occurred during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024, and the tariff-driven selloff in April 2025, all of which preceded major Bitcoin lows. While no single indicator can confirm the bottom with certainty, the confluence of these metrics suggests the worst may be over.
Key facts
- Realized Cap stabilizes after dropping from $1.12T to $1.08T, similar to 2022 bottom.
- RHODL Ratio above 5, third highest ever, behind only 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms.
- Long-term holder supply increased by 400,000 BTC since February.
- Perpetual funding rates negative for one of the longest periods between Feb and May.
- Similar negative funding episodes preceded major bottoms in 2023, 2024, and 2025.