Bitcoin Defies Cycle Norms: MVRV Z-Score Stays Low, Exchange Supply Shrinks
Bitcoin's current cycle diverges from historical patterns, with on-chain metrics like MVRV Z-Score, exchange balances, and spot ETF holdings indicating a structural shift. The MVRV Z-Score, which historically signals tops above 6, peaked near 3.5 in this cycle and currently sits near 1, suggesting no euphoric peak. Exchange balances have dropped from 3.3 million to 3 million BTC since early 2022, even as Bitcoin reached $126,000 in 2025. Spot ETFs now hold about 1.3 million BTC, absorbing supply faster than mining issuance. This institutional accumulation contrasts with past retail-driven cycles, implying a new market structure where price rises without traditional on-chain euphoria. However, risks remain from potential ETF reversals and concentrated ownership.
Key facts
- MVRV Z-Score peaked at 3.5, far below prior cycle tops above 6.
- Exchange BTC supply dropped from 3.3M to 3M since 2022.
- US spot ETFs hold ~1.3M BTC, over 6.5% of circulating supply.
- Institutional accumulation contrasts with absent retail euphoria.