10x Research founder Markus Thielen argues that Bitcoin's recent slide below $60,000 is primarily driven by institutional ETF outflows following hotter-than-expected April U.S. inflation data, not by Michael Saylor's Strategy selling Bitcoin. Since the May 12 inflation report, Bitcoin ETFs have seen $5.4 billion in net redemptions, while Strategy accumulated $2 billion in Bitcoin, making it a net buyer. Thielen warns that if Wednesday's CPI data shows inflation rising to 4.3% as forecasted, risk assets may face further pressure from potential Federal Reserve rate hikes. He notes Bitcoin looks technically oversold but cautions against seeing a short-term bounce as a sustained recovery. Stablecoin outflows ($1.7 billion last week) and falling futures open interest suggest capital leaving crypto. He emphasizes that institutional ETF flows, not narratives, will determine Bitcoin's next move.

Key facts

• Bitcoin ETF outflows reached $5.4 billion since the April inflation report.
• Strategy bought $2 billion in Bitcoin during the same period, acting as a net buyer.
• 10x Research forecasts May CPI at 4.3%, above consensus of 4.2%.
• Stablecoin outflows hit $1.7 billion last week; $5.5 billion over the month.
• Thielen says ETF flows, not narratives, are the key driver for Bitcoin's price.

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