Bitcoin slipped back below $80,000 on Wednesday after a brief breakout, as on-chain data from CryptoQuant indicated that the 37% rebound from April lows resembles a bear-market rally more than a confirmed trend reversal. Realized profits hit their highest level since December, with short-term holders increasingly exiting at a gain. CryptoQuant noted that unrealized profit margins of 18%—the highest since June 2025—have historically triggered accelerated selling, suggesting profit-taking may cap further upside. Singapore-based market maker Enflux attributed the initial move above $80,000 to a broader risk-on reaction following President Trump's pause of a U.S. naval operation tied to Strait of Hormuz tensions. This drove oil prices lower and lifted equities. However, Enflux warned that markets may be overestimating the durability of this catalyst, as previous Trump diplomatic pauses since March reversed within days or were misinterpreted. Glassnode offered a more constructive view, noting bitcoin reclaimed key on-chain levels: the True Market Mean at $78,200 and the short-term holder cost basis near $79,100—levels that often separate weaker and stronger market regimes. While identifying $85,200 as the next resistance, Glassnode cautioned that long-term holders are beginning to realize profits, and elevated realized losses suggest stronger spot demand is needed for a sustainable move higher. Prediction markets on Polymarket reflect similar caution, with low odds for a clean breakout toward $85,000.

关键事实

• Bitcoin fell back below $80,000 after a brief breakout above that level.
• CryptoQuant reports realized profits hit highest since December; 18% unrealized profit margin.
• Enflux ties rally to easing Hormuz tensions after Trump paused naval operation.
• Glassnode says bitcoin reclaimed key levels: True Market Mean ($78,200) and STH cost basis ($79,100).
• Polymarket gives low odds for bitcoin extending to $85,000 this week.

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