Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, argues that Strategy's first bitcoin sale since 2022, though small, signals a shift favoring ether (ETH) over bitcoin (BTC). Kendrick notes that ETH significantly outperformed BTC on the day of the sale, with the ETH/BTC ratio climbing 5% since Monday. He sees this as the start of ETH outperformance, predicting the ratio to reach 0.04 by year-end from 0.028, implying a 40%+ outperformance. The call contrasts with ether's 66% decline against BTC since the Ethereum proof-of-stake transition in September 2022. Kendrick highlights different economics: Bitcoin treasury firms must sell assets or raise capital to cover obligations since BTC generates no yield, while ETH can be staked for ~3% annualized income, making ether treasury firms more self-sustaining. He cites Bitmine as an example, generating $258 million annually from staking. Despite current lower premiums for ETH treasury firms like Bitmine and SharpLink Gaming, Kendrick expects investors to reward recurring staking income, closing the valuation gap with Strategy. His long-term ETH targets are $4,000 by end-2026 and $40,000 by 2030.

Key facts

• Strategy sold a small amount of BTC for the first time since 2022, signaling potential trend shift.
• ETH outperformed BTC on the sale day, with ETH/BTC ratio up 5% since Monday.
• Kendrick expects ETH/BTC to reach 0.04 by year-end, implying 40%+ outperformance.
• Bitcoin treasury firms may need to sell assets; ETH treasury firms earn staking yield.
• Bitmine generates $258M annually from staking, showcasing ETH treasury advantages.

KeyAudit data perspective