Polymarket resolved a disputed prediction market over Strategy's bitcoin sale, ruling the May 31 contract as No and the June 30 contract as Yes, following a vote by UMA token holders. The dispute centered on whether Strategy's sale of 32 bitcoin between May 26 and May 31 should count toward the May deadline. UMA voters decided that only the June 1 public disclosure date mattered, causing May bettors to lose despite the sale occurring in late May. A small group of large UMA holders, including wallets linked to Risk Labs and prominent ecosystem participants, overwhelmingly swung the vote toward No. Galaxy Research pushed back, arguing the resolution criteria should focus on the sale date. The result undermines the decentralized finance promise of democratic governance, as a few whales controlled the outcome.

Key facts

• UMA voters ruled Strategy's June 1 disclosure counted for the June contract.
• May bettors lost despite Strategy selling 32 bitcoin between May 26-31.
• Four largest No voters controlled 7 million voting weight, 25x the Yes side.
• Galaxy Research argued the resolution criteria should focus on sale date.
• Risk Labs wallets contributed to the No vote outcome.

KeyAudit data perspective