A Bubblemaps investigation reveals nine linked Polymarket accounts collectively earned $2.4 million by accurately betting on U.S. military actions related to the Iran conflict, with a 98% win rate. The accounts were created days before the U.S. bombardment of Iran in late February and precisely predicted strike timings, the ousting of Iran's Supreme Leader, and a temporary ceasefire. Analysts noted small losses were possibly intentional to avoid detection. Winnings were primarily off-ramped to Bybit, and also touched Binance and HTX. This follows a case where a U.S. soldier was arrested for insider betting on Polymarket using classified intelligence about Venezuela. Such insider trades have sparked political debate over regulation of prediction markets.

Key facts

• Nine linked Polymarket accounts made $2.4M betting on Iran military actions, with 98% win rate.
• Accounts accurately predicted U.S. strike timings, Khamenei's ousting, and ceasefire.
• Small losses were likely intentional to avoid detection, says Bubblemaps.
• Winnings were off-ramped mainly to Bybit; also touched Binance and HTX.
• Follows U.S. soldier's arrest for insider trading on Polymarket about Venezuela.