Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, has reduced the probability of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 from 75% to 60%, citing a tightening Senate calendar rather than any weakness in the bill itself. The crypto market structure bill passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan 15-9 vote on June 1 and reached the Senate floor calendar, but it lacks a scheduled floor vote before the August recess. Thorn noted that floor time is shrinking due to other legislative priorities, including a battle over the anti-weaponization fund and the reauthorization of Section 702 surveillance authority. The bill would need roughly 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, with Republicans Josh Hawley and Rand Paul expected to vote no, requiring at least nine Democratic votes. Ethics provisions and illicit finance rules remain unresolved, with Democrats tying their support to the ethics language. Thorn remains optimistic but emphasizes that timing is critical, with odds potentially shifting wildly as the calendar progresses. Polymarket bettors currently see only a 54% chance of passage, down 11% from the previous day.

Key facts

• Galaxy Digital lowers Clarity Act 2026 odds from 75% to 60% due to Senate calendar constraints.
• Bill passed Senate Banking Committee 15-9 but lacks floor vote before August recess.
• Floor time squeezed by fight over anti-weaponization fund and FISA renewal.
• Needs ~60 votes; Hawley and Rand Paul expected no, requiring at least 9 Democrats.
• Polymarket odds drop 11% to 54% for 2026 passage.