An investigation by Bubblemaps reveals that 80 bets on Polymarket achieved a 98% win rate, which analysts say is statistically impossible without insider information. These bets accurately predicted U.S. military actions against Iran days before they occurred, raising concerns that adversaries could use prediction market data to inform their own military strategies. Nicolas Vaiman, Bubblemaps CEO, warned that such markets could expose lives and become tools for information warfare. In response, Rep. Mike Levin and Sen. Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act to ban contracts on war. Polymarket has since partnered with Chainalysis to enhance surveillance, but experts note that enforcement is challenging due to VPNs and KYC workarounds. One insider trading arrest has already been made: U.S. Army Green Beret Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke made $400,000 on bets related to a Venezuela raid he participated in.

Key facts

• Bubblemaps found 80 Polymarket bets with a 98% win rate, deemed statistically impossible.
• Bets accurately predicted U.S. attacks on Iran days before they occurred.
• U.S. Congress introduced the DEATH BETS Act to ban war-related prediction contracts.
• An Army Green Beret was arrested for insider trading on Polymarket, making $400,000.
• Polymarket partnered with Chainalysis to enhance surveillance against insider trading.