As SpaceX prepares for its highly anticipated market debut, the crypto industry has developed a range of financial instruments that allow international retail investors to speculate on the company's valuation without direct access to traditional Wall Street brokerage accounts. These include prediction markets like Polymarket, where users can bet on SpaceX's closing market cap; perpetual futures contracts on exchanges such as Coinbase International and Hyperliquid; and synthetic tokens offered by Kraken parent Payward, which are backed by SpaceX shares and available in over 100 countries. Notably, while the U.S.-regulated platform Kalshi is not offering similar bets, other platforms like Myriad see a 94% chance of SpaceX closing above $1.3 trillion. However, most of these products do not provide dividends, voting rights, or direct claims on assets, and many are unavailable in the U.S. due to regulatory uncertainty around tokenized assets. The event underscores the blurring lines between traditional and digital assets and represents a key test for nascent investment alternatives.

Key facts

• Polymarket allows bets on SpaceX's closing market cap, projected between $2T and $2.5T.
• Kraken's Payward offers SpaceX-backed tokens at $135 per share in over 100 countries.
• Coinbase International and Hyperliquid list SpaceX perpetual futures contracts.
• Myriad predicts 94% chance SpaceX closes above $1.3 trillion on debut day.
• Most products lack dividends, voting rights, or direct asset claims; U.S. access limited.

KeyAudit data perspective