A key on-chain metric that has historically marked every bear market bottom has just flashed again. According to Glassnode data, the number of bitcoin in circulation held at a loss has exceeded 10.5 million BTC, surpassing the 9.8 million BTC in profit. This marks the first time during the current market cycle that supply in loss has overtaken supply in profit, a transition that has only occurred during deep bear markets and often coincides with major bottoms. Meanwhile, bitcoin's price briefly touched its 200-week moving average at $61,300, a long-term support level that has been reached during every previous bear market. Historically, the duration of this condition varies: from around one month in March 2020 to nearly a year in 2015. The realized price, representing the average acquisition cost of all bitcoin, sits at $54,000, serving as the next major support if BTC breaks below $60,000. While the signal is historically bullish for long-term bottoms, it offers no clear timeline for recovery.

Key facts

• Over 10.5 million BTC are at a loss, exceeding 9.8 million in profit for the first time this cycle.
• Bitcoin touched its 200-week moving average at $61,300, a key bear-market support level.
• Historical precedents show the condition lasted from one month (2020) to nearly a year (2015).
• Next support at $54,000 realized price if BTC falls below $60,000.
• Metric signals bear market bottom but duration of depressed prices remains uncertain.

KeyAudit data perspective