Bitcoin Sees Strongest Returns on US Holidays, New Year's Day Leads with +2.01%
A CoinGecko study analyzing 4,753 daily Bitcoin price observations from May 2013 to May 2026 reveals that US federal holidays produce significantly higher next-day returns. New Year's Day leads with an average next-day return of +2.01% and an 84.6% win rate. Overall, US holidays yield an average +0.77% next-day return, about four times the +0.19% non-holiday baseline. Columbus Day also shows an 84.6% win rate with +1.70% average return, while Christmas Day and Labor Day post +1.46% and +1.22% respectively. Two holidays buck the trend: Martin Luther King Jr. Day averages -0.84%, and Independence Day averages -0.26%, with win rates below 50%. Researchers attribute New Year's gains to fresh January capital allocations and reversal of December tax-loss selling. The holiday effect holds across a wide price range from $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025. In day-of-week analysis, Monday and Wednesday tie at +0.38% average return, while Thursday is the only negative day at -0.09%. Over a 365-day horizon, all weekdays show returns between 142.15% and 144.56%, a negligible spread given Bitcoin's volatility.
Key facts
- New Year's Day yields +2.01% average next-day return with 84.6% win rate.
- US holidays average +0.77% returns, 4x higher than non-holidays.
- Martin Luther King Jr. Day and Independence Day show negative average returns.
- Thursday is only weekday with negative average next-day return at -0.09%.
- Over 365 days, all weekdays show returns within a narrow 142.15%-144.56% range.