Bitcoin is trading near its historically depressed 200-week simple moving average, a level typically seen late in bear markets. This comes after the hottest US inflation reading in three years, with May CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year. Market sentiment is deeply negative, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 9 (extreme fear), down from 48 a month ago. Bitcoin briefly broke below $60,000 this week for the first time since 2024, and was at $62,623 on Thursday. The bounce was broad but shallow, with major cryptocurrencies like Ether, BNB, Solana, and Dogecoin posting minor gains but still lower over the week. Checkonchain data shows BTC in the bottom 10% of its historical valuation range. However, Checkonchain analyst warns that bear market bottoms are a process, not an event. Price-sensitive investors have likely capitulated, but the harder phase of months of sideways trading that slowly wears down remaining holders may follow. The outlook is further complicated by fading hopes for US regulatory clarity (Polymarket odds for the Clarity Act dropping from 62% to 48%), rising global interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and falling equities. All eyes are on the June FOMC meeting.

Key facts

• Bitcoin near 200-week moving average, typically a late bear market level.
• Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 9, deep in extreme fear territory.
• Bitcoin broke below $60k but recovered to $62,623, with shallow bounces across top coins.
• US May CPI rose 4.2% YoY, the hottest inflation reading in 3 years.
• Analyst warns bear market bottoms are a process, with potential months of sideways grind ahead.

KeyAudit data perspective