Bitcoin Rally Fails at 200-Day SMA; CryptoQuant Cites Weakening Demand
Bitcoin's recovery from February lows stalled at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near $82,000, reminiscent of 2022's failed relief rally. CryptoQuant's report explains that the rally was supported by leveraged futures buying, spot demand, and US ETF inflows, all of which have now weakened. The firm's Bull Score Index fell from 40 to 20, indicating an extremely bearish outlook similar to the February-March period when Bitcoin traded between $60,000 and $66,000. The Coinbase Bitcoin premium has remained negative, suggesting weak US demand. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $979.7 million in the week ending May 19, following $1 billion in outflows the prior week. The Korean kimchi premium has also turned negative, indicating no above-normal demand in Korea. Hong Kong's spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen minimal daily volumes. CryptoQuant identifies $70,000 as the next key on-chain support level.
Key facts
- Bitcoin failed to break above the 200-day SMA near $82,000.
- CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index dropped from 40 to 20 (extremely bearish).
- Coinbase bitcoin premium remained negative, indicating weak US demand.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $979.7M outflow in week ending May 19.
- Korean kimchi premium turned negative, no excess demand in Asia.