Bitcoin trades near $67,000, but on-chain data from Glassnode suggests long-term holders (LTH) are experiencing stress that historically precedes further downside before a cycle low. The LTH Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) sits at 0.25, the upper edge of the orange band that marked prior cycle bottoms in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2022. However, NUPL has not yet flipped to accumulation, indicating more pain ahead. Conversely, the supply held by LTH has hit a new all-time high of ~15 million BTC, showing absorption from short-term sellers. This pattern is typical mid-bear market accumulation, but selling pressure still comes from younger holders. The LTH Relative Unrealized Loss at 15.5% is far from the 50%+ levels seen at prior cycle lows. Glassnode suggests a drop to $56,000 could push this metric to 30-40%, aligning with early capitulation phases. A deeper flush to $44,000 is possible if NUPL enters the red zone. Reclaiming $105,000 would invalidate the bearish thesis. BTC is down 11.6% weekly and 36.3% yearly.

Key facts

• LTH NUPL at 0.25, upper edge of historical bottom zone.
• LTH supply hits new all-time high of ~15 million BTC.
• LTH relative unrealized loss at 15.5%, far from 50%+ cycle lows.
• Potential drop to $56,000 to increase loss metric to 30-40%.
• Reclaiming $105,000 would invalidate bearish thesis.

KeyAudit data perspective