Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $60,000 after a 5% daily drop, about 50% below its all-time high. Three widely shared charts suggest the four-year cycle remains intact and that a deeper cycle bottom is still ahead. Analyst Jesse Olson's chart scales all cycles since 2012 to the 2024 halving, showing every prior cycle bottomed near day 900 after halving. The current cycle is at day 775, leaving about 125 days until the historical bottom window, with a projected low in the $40,000s. A second chart plots price on a spiral, where each loop represents a four-year cycle, placing the 2026-2027 markers within the same arc as previous lows. The third chart shows key moving averages have flipped to resistance: the 21-week SMA at $75,100, short-term holder cost basis at $77,000, and 200-day average at $78,900. Price below these levels indicates recent buyers are underwater. Analyst Benjamin Cowen's base case places a cycle low in October 2026, aligning with the 125-day window. However, spot ETFs and corporate demand could break the pattern, and a weekly close above $78,900 would weaken the bearish view.

Key facts

• Bitcoin trades near $60,000, 50% below record high, after 5% daily drop.
• Historical halving cycles bottom near day 900; current cycle at day 775.
• Charts forecast a potential low in the $40,000s within ~4 months.
• Key moving averages at $75K-$79K now act as overhead resistance.
• Analyst predicts cycle low in October 2026; ETFs could break pattern.

KeyAudit data perspective