Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on May 13, hitting an intraday low of $78,795, as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $630.4 million in net outflows—the largest daily exit in three months. Despite the decline, analysts suggest the dip may be short-lived due to a structural buying mechanism tied to Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) preferred stock STRC. According to K33 Research, STRC has fueled mid-month rallies for three consecutive months, with Bitcoin purchases ramping from 4,467 BTC in January to 46,872 BTC in April. The mechanism involves investors buying STRC before its ex-dividend date on the 15th, pushing the stock toward its $100 par value, allowing Strategy to issue more shares and buy Bitcoin. However, Bitrue Research Institute notes that the May cycle shows slower recovery and minimal Bitcoin conversion so far, indicating possible plateauing. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has lagged behind AI-driven equity rallies, with some analysts suggesting AI is absorbing speculative capital. However, positive signs include over $4 billion in ETF inflows since March and $7 billion in stablecoin inflows since February. The upcoming CLARITY Act markup hearing on Thursday may provide tailwinds. Prediction market Myriad assigns an 85% chance that Bitcoin's next major move takes it to $84,000.

Key facts

• Bitcoin hit $78,795 low with $630M ETF outflows, largest in 3 months.
• STRC stock mechanism drove mid-month rallies for 3 months, BTC purchases up to 46,872 BTC in April.
• May STRC cycle shows slower recovery and minimal BTC conversion so far.
• Analysts note Bitcoin lags AI rally as AI absorbs speculative capital.
• Over $4B ETF inflows since March and $7B stablecoin inflows since February.
• Myriad users see 85% chance Bitcoin next major move is to $84,000.

KeyAudit data perspective