Bitcoin (BTC) demand has contracted to a level seen only three times since 2019, according to CryptoQuant. The 30-day growth of combined spot and perpetual futures demand has fallen to nearly -650,000 BTC. A similar metric from Capriole Investments, Apparent Demand, sits near the bottom of its four-year range while BTC trades near $62,800. CryptoQuant analyst MoneroDV_ noted that the reading marks the start of an unstable phase, with potential for volatility expansion followed by a period of weak momentum and compressed activity. Historical patterns suggest that recoveries from such deep demand contractions align with market bottoms, such as in March 2020 and late 2022. Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments highlighted that Apparent Demand is in the bottom 2.6% of its four-year range, though he cautioned that the metric's direct predictive power is weak. BTC's price remains near $62,800, with $59,000 acting as key support. A break below could expose the realized price near $53,600, while a close above $66,000 would suggest demand recovery, likely driven by a reversal in ETF outflows.

Key facts

• BTC spot and perpetual futures demand 30-day growth hits -650,000 BTC, a rare level.
• CryptoQuant analyst warns of upcoming volatility and prolonged sideways movement.
• Capriole's Apparent Demand is at bottom 2.6% of four-year range.
• Key support at $59,000; break below could lead to $53,600 realized price.
• ETF outflows continue to pressure demand; reversal above $66,000 could signal recovery.

KeyAudit data perspective