The probability of Bitcoin falling below $70,000 before the end of May has increased on prediction markets Polymarket and Myriad, currently around 26-27%, up over 240% on Myriad in 24 hours. Bitcoin traded at $72,739, down 3% in a day, hitting a six-week low of $72,669. The decline is driven by over $1 billion in ETF outflows in two days and $924 million in crypto liquidations, mostly long positions. Despite the bearish near-term sentiment, odds of falling below $65,000 by May end are only 3%, indicating limited panic. However, longer-term projections are more pessimistic: Polymarket gives 54% odds for Bitcoin below $55,000 and 42% for below $50,000 in 2026. Bitcoin is 42% off its all-time high of $126,080.

Key facts

• Bitcoin falls 3% in 24h to $72,739, hitting a six-week low of $72,669.
• Odds of Bitcoin below $70K by May end rise to 26-27% on prediction markets.
• ETF outflows exceed $1B in two days, with $733M leaving on Wednesday.
• Crypto liquidations hit $924M in 24h, mostly long positions at $851M.
• Long-term odds: 54% for Bitcoin below $55K and 42% below $50K in 2026.

KeyAudit data perspective