XRP is trading near $1.05, caught between a year-long falling channel and historical July bullishness. July has an average return near 10% for XRP, but the price has failed to break above the upper trendline of a falling channel since mid-2024. The 20-period EMA sits on the upper trendline, and a break could clear both barriers. On-chain data shows exchange outflows nearly tripled in days, indicating accumulation, while XRP ETF inflows have been positive for eight straight weeks, reaching $1.47 billion cumulative. The first resistance is the 0.382 Fibonacci level near $1.18, followed by the 20 EMA around $1.22, where large supply clusters exist. Support lies at $1.02 (0.5 Fib) and $0.87 (0.618 Fib). A clean break above $1.18-$1.22 would validate the bullish accumulation thesis, while failure could send XRP toward $0.87. The fading sell volume and completed bearish crossover offer hope, but a rejection at $1.18 would keep the channel intact.

Key facts

• XRP trades near $1.05, inside a falling channel since July 2024.
• July historically bullish for XRP, with average return near 10%.
• Exchange outflows surged 200% in days, suggesting accumulation.
• XRP ETF inflows positive for 8 straight weeks, totaling $1.47B.
• Key resistance at $1.18 and $1.22; support at $1.02 and $0.87.