Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on Thursday, which would bar members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from wagering on policy outcomes, government actions, or elections via prediction markets. Violators face a penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the wager's value, whichever is greater, plus any profits. The bill builds on broader federal scrutiny of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, including a Senate ban on member/staff wagering and a House Oversight investigation. Steil's office stated the legislation aims to prevent insider trading by elected officials and restore public trust. The bill follows the arrest of Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke in April, accused of using confidential information to profit over $400,000 from Polymarket bets on political events. The trial is set for December.

Key facts

• Bill bars Congress members, spouses, and dependents from prediction market wagering on policy or elections.
• Penalty: $2,000 or 10% of wager value (whichever is greater) plus profits; no taxpayer funds for fines.
• Builds on Senate ban and House Oversight investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket.
• Follows April arrest of Army sergeant for insider trading on Polymarket, profiting $400,000.
• Similar restrictions considered in broader congressional stock trading bill.