US April Inflation at 3.8% Outpaces Wages; Bernstein Sees Tokenization as Macro Hedge
US April CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding the 3.7% consensus and outpacing 3.6% wage growth, marking the first time in three years that many workers lose purchasing power. Energy CPI climbed 3.8%, food prices up 0.5%, and gasoline near $4.50/gallon, driven by Iran war supply disruptions. President Trump proposed suspending the federal gas tax to ease pressure. Market repricing suggests the Fed may delay rate cuts further into 2026, with UK 30-year yields at highest since 1998 and BOJ signaling potential June hikes. Despite the macro headwinds, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani argue that Figure Technologies' blockchain-based loan marketplace is insulated, citing Q1 tokenization volumes up 113% YoY to $2.9 billion. Bernstein reiterates a $67 price target on Figure (FIGR), implying 72% upside. The sustainability of this thesis depends on whether inflation spreads to core CPI or eases with an Iran ceasefire.
Key facts
- US April CPI rose 3.8% YoY, above 3.7% consensus and 3.6% wage growth.
- Inflation driven by Iran war energy shock: gasoline near $4.50/gallon.
- Trump proposes suspending federal gas tax to relieve consumer pressure.
- Bernstein sees Figure Technologies as macro-immune; target $67 (72% upside).
- Figure Q1 tokenization volumes up 113% YoY to $2.9 billion.