SpaceX-Linked Perpetual SPCX Rebounds Ahead of IPO Debut
The SPCX perpetual contract on Hyperliquid, linked to SpaceX's IPO, rebounded to around $176-$183 on Friday after dropping to near $153 earlier this week. At $183, it implies a 36% premium to SpaceX's $135 IPO price, up from 16% on Wednesday but below May's 60% peak. Other shadow markets like IG International derivatives and Polymarket also indicate strong demand, with implied valuations over 35% above IPO and 70% odds of a first-day close above $2 trillion. SPCX is a cash-settled derivative, not granting shares or allocation rights, but serves as a live market for traders to bet on SpaceX's opening price. Open interest stood at $216 million with 24-hour volume over $150 million. The rebound suggests the earlier discount is closing, as traders still expect SpaceX to trade above the offer price but not at the explosive premium seen in May. Blockchain-based prediction markets offer retail investors accessible, 24/7 price discovery on IPO odds.
Key facts
- SPCX rebounded to $176-$183, up from $153 low earlier this week.
- Implied premium to SpaceX IPO price of $135 is now 36%.
- IG International derivatives imply a $2.4 trillion valuation, above IPO.
- Polymarket traders give 70% odds of first-day close above $2 trillion.
- SPCX is a cash-settled derivative, not actual SpaceX shares.