Prediction market traders on Myriad are increasingly bearish on Bitcoin and Ethereum, with high odds of further declines. For Bitcoin, odds of a drop to $55,000 before a rise to $80,000 stand at 77%, while Ethereum has an 88% chance of falling to $1,500 before recovering to $3,000. Bitcoin recently traded at $59,511, down 23% in the past month, and Ethereum at $1,576, down over 25% in 30 days. The sell-off is amplified by declines in Strategy (MSTR) shares and its preferred equity offering STRC, which hit an all-time low of $73.62. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan notes that STRC's performance is influencing Bitcoin's short-term trajectory, as markets worry about a potential death spiral forcing Strategy to sell Bitcoin. Analysts suggest Strategy needs to shore up cash to ease investor concerns. On Kalshi, longer-term predictions show a 36% chance of Bitcoin below $40,000 and 34% chance of Ethereum below $1,000 by 2026. Bitcoin is 53% off its all-time high, while Ethereum is 68% off its peak.

Key facts

• Myriad prediction markets give 77% odds of BTC drop to $55,000 before $80,000 rebound.
• Ethereum has 88% chance of falling to $1,500 before recovery to $3,000.
• Strategy's STRC preferred equity hit all-time low of $73.62, pressuring Bitcoin.
• Bitcoin down 23% in past month; Ethereum down 25%.
• Kalshi sees 36% chance BTC below $40k and 34% chance ETH below $1k by 2026.

KeyAudit data perspective