Former U.S. Representative George Santos is under investigation by the CFTC and DOJ for allegedly placing trades on prediction market Kalshi that wagered against his own attendance at President Trump's State of the Union address in February 2026. According to NPR, Santos publicly stated he would attend, boosting the odds, while privately betting he would not, netting tens of thousands of dollars in profit. Kalshi detected the suspicious activity, froze his account, and referred the case to federal agencies. The case highlights growing scrutiny of prediction markets, following recent prosecutions for insider trading on platforms like Polymarket. Legal experts note that Santos' alleged actions may constitute market manipulation rather than classical insider trading, as he used false public statements to influence prices. Santos, whose prison sentence for unrelated fraud was commuted by Trump in 2025, has denied knowledge of the investigation. The incident underscores the regulatory challenges prediction markets face, as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket implement controls to prevent such abuses.

Key facts

• George Santos allegedly bet against his own attendance at Trump's State of the Union address on Kalshi.
• Santos made public statements claiming he would attend, then skipped the event and profited.
• Kalshi froze his account and referred the case to the CFTC and DOJ for investigation.
• Legal experts say the case may be market manipulation rather than traditional insider trading.
• Santos, whose sentence was commuted by Trump, denies knowledge of the investigation.