A new Polymarket account named 'fishalive' turned approximately $4 million into over $9 million in profit by betting against Spain in their World Cup match against Cabo Verde, which ended in a 0-0 draw. The account, created just days before the match, placed two bets: one that Spain would not win outright and another that Cabo Verde would stay within 2.5 goals. Both bets paid off after the upset, resulting in a one-day profit of roughly $9 million. On the other side, trader 'betoor619' lost nearly $1 million betting on a Spain victory, a trade that would have netted only $85,000 had Spain won. The incident has sparked debate over whether the trade was based on luck or inside information, given the anonymity of onchain betting and the account's lack of prior large wins. Polymarket's transparency allows public scrutiny of such trades, but also raises questions about the platform's lack of identity verification compared to regulated sportsbooks.

Key facts

• New account 'fishalive' turned $4M into $9M profit betting against Spain.
• Spain drew 0-0 with World Cup debutants Cabo Verde in a major upset.
• Trader 'betoor619' lost nearly $1M betting on Spain with slim odds.
• Polymarket's onchain transparency allows public scrutiny of trades.
• Question remains whether the trade was luck or inside information.

KeyAudit data perspective