OpenAI Delays IPO to 2027, Citing SpaceX Volatility and Market Risks
OpenAI executives are urging caution on its IPO timeline after SpaceX's turbulent public debut, highlighting risks in mega-AI listings. The development comes as Polymarket traders price roughly 30-40% odds of no OpenAI IPO by end-2026, underscoring investor skepticism in a high-stakes market. SpaceX priced its massive $75 billion IPO at $135 per share on June 11, 2026. Shares (SPCX) opened at $150, rocketed to an intraday high of $225+ on June 17, and briefly pushed the market cap above $2 trillion. However, reality set in fast. The stock has since given up most gains, sliding sharply lower. As of June 26, SPCX trades around $152.86, hovering near its listing price after multiple double-digit daily drops. This volatility, strong debut followed by swift 25-30% retracement, is now reportedly influencing OpenAI's boardroom. OpenAI filed confidentially with the SEC on June 8 but emphasized timing remains flexible. Sarah Friar has reportedly urged waiting until 2027, citing massive ongoing cash burn, compute infrastructure commitments, and the burden of public reporting. This creates tension with CEO Sam Altman, who favored a quicker timeline. In today's market, even blockbuster listings face immediate scrutiny over profitability and lock-up expirations. OpenAI's last private valuation neared $850 billion, leaving little room for error if public markets turn skeptical. OpenAI's IPO window remains open but uncertain. Watch SpaceX's stabilization in July, potential Anthropic moves, and OpenAI's Q3 updates. A delayed but stronger listing could still deliver historic returns, provided the company proves sustainable AI revenue amid cooling investor appetite for growth-at-all-costs stories.
Key facts
- OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO to 2027 after SpaceX's volatile trading debut.
- Polymarket traders see 30-40% chance of no OpenAI IPO by end-2026.
- SpaceX shares surged to $225+ then fell to $152, near IPO price.
- Sarah Friar urges delay due to cash burn and public reporting burden.
- OpenAI's $850B private valuation leaves little room for market skepticism.