Miner: Strategy's mNAV Drop to 0.72 Signals Bitcoin Bottom Six Months Later
Jiang Zhuoer, a prominent Chinese bitcoin miner and founder of LeBit mining pool, predicts the current bear market will bottom in Q4 2026 with bitcoin roughly between $42,000 and $44,000. His timing relies on Strategy's market net asset value (mNAV), the ratio of the company's stock price to the per-share value of its bitcoin holdings, which has fallen to 0.72. This is near the 0.7 low seen on May 11, 2022, during the last cycle's turn. Historically, bitcoin's price bottom occurred about six months after that mNAV signal, suggesting a low around late 2026. Jiang's price target comes from a four-year cycle model that shows diminishing volatility over time, with a projected low of $44,016 on Oct. 31, though he gives a range of $42,000-$44,000 across October to December. This bearish outlook aligns with other signals: bitcoin hovering near its 200-week moving average and the unwinding of the debasement trade due to a hawkish Fed. Some analysts have urged Strategy to suspend bitcoin purchases, arguing it has overextended. The mNAV below 1 indicates deep market pessimism toward the company's bitcoin strategy.
Key facts
- Strategy's mNAV fell to 0.72, near the 0.7 low of May 2022.
- Bitcoin historically bottoms about 6 months after that mNAV signal.
- Jiang predicts BTC low of $42,000-$44,000 in Q4 2026.
- Cycle model shows shrinking volatility; projected low $44,016 on Oct 31.
- Other bearish signals: BTC near 200-week MA, unwinding debasement trade.