Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small team at Meta to build a standalone prediction markets app called Arena, according to a New York Times report. The app would run separately from Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, initially using a video-game-style points system rather than real cash, sidestepping gambling regulations but generating no direct revenue. However, the company has not ruled out real-money betting later. This move fits a pattern of Zuckerberg copying rivals, such as Instagram Stories (Snapchat), Reels (TikTok), and Threads (X/Twitter). The prediction market sector has grown rapidly after the 2024 US election, with Kalshi's valuation reaching $22 billion and annualized volume near $178 billion. However, scrutiny is rising, with regulators circling and analyses showing most Polymarket users lose money. Meanwhile, Elon Musk recently became the world's first trillionaire after SpaceX's Nasdaq debut, but a subsequent stock slide has reduced his fortune. Kalshi traders rank Zuckerberg among the most likely to reach $1 trillion next, with about 24% odds, though the market is thin. Zuckerberg's fortune is heavily tied to Meta stock, which would need to quintuple in value for him to reach trillionaire status. His costly bets, like Reality Labs losing over $70 billion, show that Arena's success is uncertain, and his path to $1 trillion likely depends on Meta's core advertising and AI business.

Key facts

• Meta's prediction markets app Arena will initially use points system, not cash.
• Move fits Zuckerberg's pattern of copying rivals like Snapchat and TikTok.
• Kalshi valued at $22B with nearly $178B annualized volume after 2024 election.
• Kalshi traders give Zuckerberg 24% odds to be next trillionaire after Musk.
• Zuckerberg's fortune tied to Meta stock, needing quintuple growth for $1T.