K33 Research warns that bitcoin faces a 'choppy summer' as institutional demand fades and capital rotates into AI stocks. In a Tuesday report, head Vetle Lunde cited heavy ETF outflows—62,794 BTC over three weeks—and vulnerabilities in derivatives markets as signs of weakness. Bitcoin has failed to reclaim its 200-day moving average while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit record highs, with investors also eyeing IPOs from SpaceX and Anthropic. K33 previously argued that bitcoin's plunge to $60,000 in February marked the cycle's deepest drawdown, but that view is now questioned as leveraged longs build into a weakening market. CME bitcoin futures open interest has fallen to its lowest since October 2023, while funding rates rise despite price drops. K33 still sees BTC as undervalued long-term but advises caution due to fading institutional demand and capital chasing stronger-performing sectors.

Key facts

• Bitcoin failed to reclaim its 200-day moving average, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit record highs.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw 62,794 BTC in outflows over three weeks, second-largest streak on record.
• CME bitcoin futures open interest fell to lowest since October 2023, indicating institutional caution.
• Funding rates in perpetual futures rose alongside open interest as bitcoin fell, signaling leveraged long risk.
• K33 warns of potential deeper lows and advises caution amid capital rotation to AI stocks.

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