Jefferies warns that the Clarity Act, a key US crypto market structure bill, faces significant hurdles in the Senate, potentially fueling volatility in crypto tokens and blockchain equities. The bill passed the Senate Banking Committee but has limited time before the August recess, with Polymarket odds dropping to 48% by end-2026. Passage would provide regulatory clarity for institutional adoption, enabling tokenization, custody, and staking services, while delays would prolong uncertainty. The bank expects volatility in stocks like Coinbase, Circle, and Bullish, and mixed impacts on Circle's USDC growth due to potential loophole closures. JPMorgan also noted limited window for passage this year.

Key facts

• Clarity Act faces Senate hurdles with limited time before August recess.
• Polymarket odds drop to 48% for passage by end-2026, down from 70% in May.
• Passage would unlock institutional adoption; delays prolong regulatory uncertainty.
• Jefferies expects elevated volatility in crypto tokens and blockchain equities.
• JPMorgan also warns of limited window for passage this year.

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