Galaxy Digital has reduced its odds of the CLARITY Act, a comprehensive crypto market structure bill, becoming law in 2026 to 50%, down from 75% in May and 60% earlier in June. The downgrade reflects growing concerns over Senate floor time constraints before the August recess. Analysts attribute the delay to competition from a contested housing bill and an elections measure, not a rejection of the bill's content. Without a unified Senate text or firm schedule, the bill risks slipping into a complex mid-term election environment. However, odds could recover if a final text emerges in July. The bill, which passed the House in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, would establish a U.S. digital asset framework dividing oversight between the CFTC and SEC. It remains a key domestic policy catalyst for crypto markets, but faces political hurdles including Democratic opposition over ethics and stablecoin provisions.

Key facts

• Galaxy Digital cuts CLARITY Act passage odds to 50% for 2026.
• Senate schedule competition from housing and elections bills causes delay.
• No unified Senate text or firm floor schedule before August recess.
• Bill would create U.S. digital asset framework with CFTC/SEC oversight.
• Odds could recover if final text is released in July.