Elon Musk Predicts $1 Trillion SpaceX Revenue by 2030, Far Above Bank Forecasts
Elon Musk claimed on X that SpaceX revenue could reach approximately $1 trillion in 2030, and likely exceed that in 2031. This projection vastly exceeds Wall Street estimates. SpaceX's IPO filing showed $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025, up 33% from 2024. Morgan Stanley, a lead underwriter, forecasts about $330 billion for 2030, while Goldman Sachs is similarly conservative. Both banks base their outlook on AI infrastructure, expecting it to deliver roughly $190 billion by 2030. However, SpaceX's AI unit earned only $3.2 billion in 2025 with a $6.4 billion loss. Currently, Starlink satellite internet is the main revenue driver, generating $11.4 billion in 2025 with 10.3 million subscribers. Musk has a history of ambitious predictions, but achieving a 53-fold revenue increase in five years would be unprecedented for a company of this size. The IPO valued SpaceX at over $2 trillion, with Musk retaining 82.4% voting power. Investors face the challenge of assessing whether Musk's vision or Wall Street's more cautious models prove accurate.
Key facts
- Musk predicts ~$1T revenue for SpaceX in 2030, exceeding $1T in 2031.
- Morgan Stanley estimates $330B for 2030; Goldman Sachs similar range.
- SpaceX 2025 revenue was $18.7B, growing 33% from 2024.
- AI infrastructure is key to forecasts, but AI unit lost $6.4B on $3.2B revenue.
- Starlink generated $11.4B in 2025 with 10.3M subscribers.