Crypto Relief Rally Fails to Shake Persistent Bearish Derivatives Signal
Bitcoin and Ethereum staged a modest recovery on Thursday, buoyed by a rebound in U.S. equities, after hitting multi-month lows. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000 on Wednesday, its lowest since October 2024, before recovering to around $61,000. Ether also bounced from $1,550 to $1,644. However, derivatives data remains bearish: nearly $1 billion in crypto futures were liquidated in 24 hours, and bitcoin funding rates turned negative, indicating short-biased positioning. Cumulative volume delta (CVD) remains negative for a third day, suggesting bears are aggressively shorting. Implied volatility declined, supporting the bounce, but put-call skew remains extreme. Solana fell to $64, a 75% drop from its September peak, with a potential break below $60 threatening further losses. Altcoins showed exaggerated bounces in low liquidity, with Jupiter (JUP) swinging 18% after a 12% drop. DeFi tokens AAVE and ETHFI gained, while AI tokens continued to lag. The market's fragile rebound hinges on upcoming U.S. Core PCE data, which could trigger shifts in positioning.
Key facts
- Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000, lowest since October 2024, before recovering above $61,000.
- Nearly $1 billion in crypto futures liquidated in 24 hours; bitcoin funding rates turn negative.
- Cumulative volume delta negative for third straight day, indicating bearish market action.
- Solana drops 75% from September peak to $64; possible break below $60 threatens further decline.
- Altcoins show exaggerated bounces in low liquidity; Jupiter swings 18% after 12% drop.