Copper-to-Gold Ratio Breaks Above 200-Day Moving Average, Historically Bullish for Bitcoin
The copper-to-gold ratio has risen above its 200-day moving average for the first meaningful time since September 2020, a move historically linked to early stages of major bitcoin bull markets. The ratio is currently 0.00142, with copper at $6.65/lb and gold near $4,700/oz. Previous surges in 2013, 2017, and 2021 aligned with significant bitcoin gains. The 20-day moving average correlation between bitcoin and the ratio sits at -0.11, rebounding from -0.90, suggesting improving but not yet positive correlation. Historically, during strong bitcoin bull runs, the correlation trends toward 1.0. The ratio is seen as a gauge of economic momentum and risk appetite, with a rising ratio signaling a risk-on macro environment. This indicator has historically led bitcoin by weeks to months, implying the current move may still be early.
Key facts
- Copper-to-gold ratio exceeds 200-day MA first time since Sep 2020.
- Historically, ratio surges in 2013, 2017, 2021 preceded bitcoin rallies.
- Current correlation between bitcoin and ratio is -0.11, improving from -0.90.
- Rising ratio indicates risk-on macro environment for markets.