Brent crude oil has fallen approximately 40% from its March peak near $120 to trade around $72.25, fully erasing the war premium built after Iran-US escalation. The decline returns oil to its pre-war support base that existed from January to February. The weekly chart shows Brent trading inside a descending parallel channel since late 2023, with the recent breakout and reversal now placing price back in the accumulation zone between $60 and $72. From a daily perspective, a symmetrical triangle breakdown in late May accelerated the drop as war fears faded, pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 30 for the first time since April 2025. The critical support zone lies between $68 and $72, where the weekly upper channel band, daily support base, and a rising trendline converge. A hold here could trigger a rebound toward $80, but a breakdown below $68 would open the door to $60. Fundamentals are mixed: falling US inventories and supply warnings support a floor, while a fresh Iranian oil license and reduced geopolitical risk cap rallies. The next Middle East headlines will likely determine the direction.

Key facts

• Brent crude falls 40% from March peak near $120 to $72.25.
• War premium fully erased; oil returns to pre-conflict support zone.
• Weekly descending parallel channel since late 2023 defines long-term range.
• Daily symmetrical triangle breakdown in late May drove steep decline.
• RSI oversold below 30 for first time since April 2025.
• Key support zone $68-$72 confluent with multiple technical levels.

KeyAudit data perspective