Bitcoin's 14-day relative strength index (RSI) fell below 30 on June 3, signaling oversold conditions for the first time since early February. The indicator has historically marked price bottoms, with similar readings in early February, November 2025, late February 2025, and August 2024 preceding reversals. Despite this, some analysts warn that further downside is possible. Monarq CIO Sam Gaer said "blood is in the water" and highlighted that bitcoin could fall to $45,000 if support at $60,000 breaks, citing a four-year cycle theory. QCP Capital noted a spike in implied volatility, suggesting traders are hedging risk rather than buying the dip. The market is also facing headwinds from Strategy (MSTR) selling a small portion of its bitcoin holdings and spot ETFs extending a record run of net outflows. Fed rate-hike concerns and weakening institutional demand further limit recovery prospects. Bitcoin traded around $66,925, down from recent highs. On the macro front, geopolitical tensions in Iran pushed oil prices higher, while prediction markets show a 66% chance of bitcoin falling below $55,000 before year-end. The RSI reading offers hope, but caution remains high as key levels like $67,000 must hold to restore bullish sentiment.

Key facts

• Bitcoin's 14-day RSI fell below 30, signaling oversold conditions and potential bottom.
• Strategy (MSTR) sold a small part of its bitcoin holdings, adding to market pressure.
• Spot ETFs extended a record run of net outflows, weakening institutional support.
• Some analysts warn bitcoin could drop to $45,000 if support at $60,000 fails.
• QCP Capital noted heightened implied volatility, indicating hedging over dip-buying.

KeyAudit data perspective