Bitcoin Rallies on Iran Deal But Institutional Demand Remains Weak
Bitcoin jumped to over $65,800 after President Trump announced a completed deal with Iran, but analysts caution that a peace deal alone won't restore institutional capital. Over $4.8 billion has exited U.S. Bitcoin ETF products since May, reflecting weak demand. The 25-delta options skew remains at -4% to -5%, indicating traders are still paying for downside protection. The Fed's Wednesday meeting could impact recovery; if the deal signs smoothly and the Fed doesn't surprise, Bitcoin might target $66,000-$70,000 by end of Q2. However, prediction markets remain bearish, with Myriad users placing 67% chance of a drop to $55,000. The network recorded its 11th-largest difficulty adjustment drop of 10.09%, the second-biggest of 2026, due to squeezed miner margins from June's price decline. Analysts expect slow recovery toward $70,000 over months unless a negative catalyst emerges.
Key facts
- Bitcoin rose to $65,860 after Trump's Iran deal announcement.
- Over $4.8 billion exited US Bitcoin ETFs since May.
- Options skew at -4% to -5% shows persistent downside hedging.
- Network difficulty dropped 10.09%, the 11th-largest ever.
- Prediction markets see 67% chance Bitcoin falls to $55,000.