Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $60,000 on Wednesday, hitting an intraday low of $59,102, a 5% decline in 24 hours and over 50% from its October 2025 record of $126,080. This marks the third time in June that BTC has breached this level. Despite the fall, crypto asset manager 21Shares maintains that Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle remains intact, contrary to its earlier prediction that institutional demand would break the pattern by 2026. The firm's mid-year report notes that the current correction mirrors past post-halving drawdowns, though it is milder: Bitcoin fell 84% after the 2017 peak and 77% after the 2021 peak. The report highlights that BTC is still above the ~$54,000 cost basis, suggesting sellers have not fully capitulated. Institutional ownership, bolstered by $53 billion in net ETF inflows since 2024, is seen as providing a cushion, though June has seen record outflows. 21Shares forecasts a recovery to $100,000 by year-end, but not new highs. However, skeptics like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predict a further drop to $40,000 within six months, citing a hawkish Fed with December rate-hike odds near 37%. Upcoming inflation data and Fed policy will be key.

Key facts

• BTC fell below $60K for the third time in June, reaching $59,102.
• 21Shares maintains four-year cycle unbroken despite earlier forecast of a break.
• Current drawdown milder than past cycles: 84% and 77% declines after 2017, 2021 peaks.
• BTC holds above $54K cost basis; net ETF inflows total $53B since 2024 launch.
• Arthur Hayes predicts $40K bottom within six months due to hawkish Fed.

KeyAudit data perspective