Bitcoin's price recently failed to surpass its 200-day moving average (MA) around $82,430, according to CryptoQuant, cutting short a bear market rally. The rejection mirrors a similar pattern in March 2022, which preceded a significant downturn that saw Bitcoin fall from $47,000 to below $16,000. As of Wednesday, Bitcoin trades below $80,000, still 37% above its April lows. Unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, the highest since June 2025, signaling elevated selling pressure. Profit-taking has already begun, with traders locking in 14,600 BTC ($1.16 billion) on a single day last week, the largest since December 2025. The Coinbase Premium has turned negative since late April, indicating declining US demand. Despite the bearish signals, CryptoQuant notes a key support level around $70,000, the on-chain realized price for traders, which historically acts as resistance-turned-support. Bitcoin currently trades at $79,379, about 3.5% below the 200-day MA, and has fallen 1.6% in 24 hours and 2.5% in the past week.

Key facts

• Bitcoin failed to break above its 200-day moving average around $82,430.
• This mirrors March 2022 pattern that preceded a major price drop.
• Unrealized profit margins hit 17.7%, highest since June 2025.
• Profit-taking peaked at 14,600 BTC ($1.16B) in a single day last week.
• Key support at $70,000 is the on-chain realized price for traders.

KeyAudit data perspective