Bitcoin has fallen below the lowest band of the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart for the second time in its history, entering the original model's purple 'Bitcoin Is Dead' zone around $62,500. The price is down roughly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. The Rainbow Chart, developed by Reddit user Azop in 2014, uses a logarithmic growth curve to track long-term price trends and color-coded bands representing market sentiment. Analysts are divided on the significance: some see it as a buying opportunity similar to the 2022 bottom at $15,000, while others argue the chart's predictive power has diminished due to institutional investors, ETFs, and changing market structure. Markus Levin of XYO called the model 'dead' due to structural shifts, while Ryan Lee of Bitget said it remains a useful sentiment reference but not a predictive tool. Emad Shahin of Ethra described it as a 'sentiment cartoon.' The breach has sparked debate over whether bitcoin is undervalued or the model is outdated. The Stock-to-Flow model has also struggled in this cycle. Despite the pessimistic label, historical precedent suggests the zone often precedes recoveries rather than permanent collapse. Bitcoin's trading near its April 2024 halving price, contrary to past cycle expectations, with analysts warning that further downside to the low-$50,000s is possible if risk sentiment deteriorates.

Key facts

• Bitcoin fell below Rainbow Chart's 'Bitcoin Is Dead' zone at ~$62,500, down 50% from $126,000 ATH.
• Rainbow Chart, created in 2014, uses logarithmic growth curve and color bands for sentiment.
• Analysts divided: some see buying opportunity, others say model is outdated due to ETF/institutional shifts.
• Stock-to-Flow model also struggled, with BTC near April 2024 halving price.
• Further downside to low-$50,000s possible if risk sentiment deteriorates.

KeyAudit data perspective