Bitcoin's price has fallen from about $67,000 to below $60,000 ahead of a $10 billion quarterly options expiry on Deribit, undermining the popular max pain theory. The max pain level for Friday's expiry is around $72,000, significantly above the current spot price of approximately $61,700. Max pain theory suggests that option writers push prices toward a level where buyers lose the most, but recent settlements have not shown this pinning effect. Experts like Tony Stewart of Pelion Capital have long argued that the theory has limited weight in crypto markets. Despite this, the June expiry is still considered a major liquidity event that could spur volatility as billions of dollars in contracts expire or roll over. Market makers and traders are closely watching the event, though the theory's predictive power remains in question.

Key facts

• Bitcoin dropped from $67K to under $60K before $10B options expiry.
• Max pain level at $72K far above spot, challenging the theory.
• Recent expiries show weak price pinning, per Wintermute OTC trader.
• Experts like Tony Stewart dismiss max pain in crypto markets.
• June expiry still seen as major liquidity event for volatility.

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