CryptoQuant's bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator turned green for the first time since 2023, signaling a potential market structure recovery, according to onchain analyst Julio Moreno. He noted that historically, this signal indicates the worst of a correction may have passed. However, Mati Greenspan of Quantum Economics cautioned that the indicator is not a crystal ball but a regime-shift tool, requiring confirmation from sustained demand and price action. He cited 2019 and early 2023 as examples of successful signals, but also pointed to March 2022 as a false positive. Currently, bitcoin is struggling to break through the $82,000 resistance level after a 35% rebound from February's $60,000 lows. Moreno emphasized that the current signal is pivotal but must overcome exhaustion in secondary metrics and a complex macroeconomic backdrop. Arthur Hayes believes bitcoin bottomed at $60,000 and sees $90,000 as a key level for an explosive rally toward $126,000. Jason Fernandes warned that metrics like MVRV and NUPL are behavioral frameworks, not precise trading signals.

Key facts

• CryptoQuant's Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator turns green for first time since 2023.
• Analysts say historical signal often marks end of worst correction phase.
• March 2022 saw a false positive from the same indicator.
• Bitcoin faces resistance at $82,000 after 35% rebound from $60,000.
• Arthur Hayes predicts $90,000 is key level for rally toward $126,000.

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