The Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (BETZ) has exhibited a strong correlation with Bitcoin since its inception in 2020, with a 90-day correlation coefficient of 0.73 and a 365-day coefficient of 0.91 as of press time. Interestingly, the ETF appears to peak and bottom a few weeks before Bitcoin, suggesting it may serve as a leading indicator for BTC price movements. For example, BETZ peaked in September 2021 while Bitcoin followed in November; it bottomed in September 2022 three months before BTC's low. However, correlation does not imply causation, and recent decoupling between the two assets suggests caution. This relationship reinforces the view that Bitcoin behaves like a risk-sensitive macro asset rather than a safe haven.

Key facts

• BETZ ETF and Bitcoin have a 90-day correlation of 0.73 and 365-day correlation of 0.91.
• BETZ peaks/bottoms consistently weeks before Bitcoin in multiple cycles since 2020.
• The relationship suggests Bitcoin behaves like a risk-sensitive macro asset.
• Recent decoupling between BETZ and rising BTC may be a signal worth monitoring.
• Correlation does not imply causation; BETZ is a sentiment proxy, not a standalone predictor.

KeyAudit data perspective