Polymarket and Kalshi bettors favor France as the most likely winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with France at 23% on Polymarket and 20% on Kalshi, closely followed by Argentina at 22% and 16% respectively. Spain, England, and Brazil round out the top five. Together, France and Argentina account for over 45% of winning predictions on Polymarket, indicating a perceived two-horse race. France is the statistical favorite entering later rounds, while defending champion Argentina draws support from those trusting Lionel Messi's squad. The prediction market activity aligns with earlier money flow analysis by BeInCrypto showing capital concentrated among elite nations. Off the pitch, total stadium attendance has surpassed 3.6 million, a new World Cup record. Meanwhile, FIFA is reportedly considering expanding to a 64-team format by 2038. The tournament has also boosted fan token markets and brought mainstream attention to prediction platforms.

Key facts

• France leads Polymarket at 23% probability, Argentina at 22%, with Spain third at 11%.
• Kalshi mirrors Polymarket: France at 20%, Argentina at 16%.
• France and Argentina together hold over 45% of Polymarket winner predictions.
• Total attendance surpasses 3.6 million, a new World Cup record.
• FIFA reportedly considers expanding to 64 teams by 2038.