BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted during a June 12 interview that Bitcoin could bottom near $40,000 within six months, a 35% drop from current levels around $62,278. Despite this bearish short-term outlook, Hayes maintains large long positions with put spread hedges. MicroStrategy's continued accumulation, adding 520 BTC and raising cash reserves to $1.4 billion, provided temporary support but analysts note declining marginal demand from ETFs and Strategy. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with rates held at 3.50%-3.75% and a shifted dot plot signaling potential hikes, has created downward pressure. Market pricing for a December rate hike rose to 37% from 24% a month earlier. Wintermute reports that crypto leverage has been largely flushed out but fresh demand remains absent. Key events include the upcoming PCE report on Thursday and potential quarter-end rebalancing, with JPMorgan estimating up to $165 billion shifting from equities to bonds.

Key facts

• Hayes predicts Bitcoin bottom near $40k within six months, a 35% drawdown.
• MicroStrategy added 520 BTC, raising cash reserves to $1.4 billion.
• Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, dot plot signals possible future hikes.
• Market prices December rate hike at 37%, up from 24% a month ago.
• Wintermute says crypto leverage cleared but no fresh demand seen.

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