Americans Wagered Up to $34B on Offshore Prediction Markets in a Year, Study Finds
A new study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, an industry group including Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Coinbase, found that Americans wagered between $11 billion and $34 billion on offshore prediction markets over the 12 months ending in April 2026. Conducted by Rutgers professor Harry Crane, the study compared data from platforms that block U.S. users with those exclusively serving U.S. or non-U.S. users. It estimated that 12.5%–31.5% of all U.S. prediction market activity occurs on offshore platforms. Polymarket, the largest offshore market, saw $10.6–$26.7 billion of its $55.6 billion trailing volume attributed to U.S. users, despite being technically prohibited. The study projects U.S.-based offshore activity could reach $133 billion annually by 2030 if current growth trends continue. The Coalition warned that offshore platforms lack customer verification, anti-money laundering controls, and market integrity oversight. The CFTC has proposed new rules banning markets on war or assassination, but faces ongoing legal and political challenges over its authority.
Key facts
- Americans wagered $11–$34 billion on offshore prediction markets in 12 months to April 2026.
- Study estimates 12.5–31.5% of U.S. prediction market volume is on offshore platforms.
- Polymarket had $10.6–$26.7B from U.S. users despite being disallowed.
- U.S. offshore activity could reach $133B annually by 2030 if trends continue.
- Coalition warns offshore platforms lack key regulatory safeguards.